Trending Dollars to Philippine Peso
I have added the first chart for Dollar Vs. Peso trends. The chart doesn’t show much of a trend for now as the Dollar Vs. Peso value has seen very little movement. I will be adding more charts and making the first one more meaningful over time.
The dollar remains strong against the Euro and the British Pound but has 
slipped a little against the Japanese Yen over the last few months. Though the dollar started a steep decline in December against the Philippine Peso it has now leveled out and showing very little change.
I think this is because the Philippines Central Bank has hinted at lowering of interest rates may be in order. They are however, taking a very cautious approach as double digit inflation was present for part of 2008 due rapid growth in the Philippines and Asia.
Many government officials have been speaking of the expected recession that is coming to the Philippines. So far though, only a slowing of growth has been reported and the economy is growing but at a slower rate.
The slow down in the west though is likely to reduce exports and eventually may cause the recession that many expect for the Philippines. I hope not, as the Philippines really is poor enough without adding more misery to the people of the Philippines. I say misery but most Filipino seem to be happy, with what ever it is they have.
The dollar should loose some of its value once Obama’s stimulus package is approved. I’m surprised it has not already caused a devaluation of the dollar as markets generally take this kind of information into account long before it actually happens. Perhaps the other economies will do worse than the US, in part because of the loss of exports to the US. Or perhaps currency traders have not yet been convinced that Obama can get his spending package approved.
I think he will, his power of persuasion seems to be excellent. Many US legislatures had reservations about the release of the rest of the TARP funds intended to keep banks afloat but after talking with some of those that objected, they are not on board with him.
Popularity: 1%
Hi Rusty – I would bet that there will be no recession in the Philippines. Slower growth – yes. Recession, no. I am defining recession as two quarters of negative growth.
Just my prediction… your opinion may vary.
I didn’t think so either but after watching so many of local Philippine TV, including a professor of economics at the University of The Philippines seem so matter of fact about it.
Recession is defined the way you said but, it wouldn’t surprise me if Filipino have their own definition. If so that might explain their use of the term.
I generally defer to the Filipino on matters about the Philippines.
I think it depends on how bad things get in the US. And I think it is going to get bad enough to take many others down with it. Their wont be a lot of imports into the US.
But is that going to affect the call centers and Philippine exports. I don’t know, I have much to learn about Philippine economics.
I’m not big on predictions but sometimes I can’t resist making some.
I’m happy just discussing the issues. I’ve got a year in now, I’m no longer truly newbie but there is still much more that I don’t know compared to what I do know. I’m soaking it up as fast as I can though.
Oh, I stole your dollar
LOL
Hi Rusty – I saw on TV a while back some Filipino Economists discussing the economy. They did state that they felt that growth of 3% or less would be considered recession here. My prediction is by the more conventional definition of recession.
Exports will certainly be affected, and actually already are. I believe that call center operations will actually improve during the bad times ahead, as companies will be looking to cut costs as much as possible. This could change if Obama puts in any measures to protect American jobs, though.
Obama will put in measures to protect American jobs if he can get them through congress. Sometimes I wonder if is confidence causes him to forget that little detail. LOL But I wouldn’t want an un-confident president.
You are probably correct though, even with his efforts, call centers are likely to expand. Cebu City was recently honored with a rating from a leading consulting firm as one of the best positioned locations for call centers. One of the best places in the world.
Awww, Okay well if that’s what they meant by recession I would have to agree that is no recession. I was a little surprised at the time to see them predicting recession.
However, now China has been hit harder than was first thought, I’ve yet to see anything predicting a recession there, just slowed growth.
The slowed exports are the crucial thing for the Philippines and of course the remittances from OFW. There is a report on Inquirer.net today regarding a planned stimulus package by the Philippine government. I have seen economist on TV complaining about all talk and no action though.