Well, clearly I was wrong as the dollar never made it to P50. I surely was hopeful. I think the recession in the US will stop just shy of being a full depression. I also think the economy is starting to turn around in the US. That doesn’t mean all the numbers coming out of the US will be good but I think soon there will be more dollars in circulation and my hopes off seeing the dollar go to P60 are all but lost.
So instead, I will have to keep working hard at keeping my onliine activities growing. Well, I would have done that anyway.
The dollar seems to be on a downward trend at the end of March.. I don’t know what it is going to do and where are the numbers for January remittances. Have they not been released? I’ve seen nothing on this.
| Date | Close | Comments | |
| 04-01-09 | 48.1950 | ||
| 04-02-09 | 47.6641 | Deip Below 48 Again. | |
| 04-03-09 | 47.7326 | ||
| 04-04-09 | 47.7326 | ||
| 04-05-09 | 47.6211 | ||
| 04-06-09 | 47.7008 | ||
| 04-07-09 | 47.8080 | ||
| 04-08-09 | 48.1814 | ||
| 04-09-09 | 47.8358 | ||
| 04-10-09 | 47.8583 | ||
| 04-11-09 | 47.7440 | ||
| 04-12-09 | 47.7897 | ||
| 04-13-09 | 47.1142 | ||
| 04-14-09 | 47.1696 | So much for my hopdes of dollar going over P50 Dollar appears headed down! | |
| 04-15-09 | 47.1921 | ||
| 04-16-09 | 47.9156 | Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas cut interest rates on this day. | |
| 04-17-09 | 47.7897 | ||
| 04-18-09 | 47.7600 | Price was as high as 48.6. Cant find cause for it. | |
| 04-19-09 | 47.6530 | I saw the Pso at :49.7 yesterday on XE.COM but no one else shows that amount and now they don’t either. Not sure what happened. Error? | |
| 04-20-09 | 47.9408 | ||
| 04-21-09 | 48.5361 | The dollar and peso seem to be hopping up and down in recent days? I don’t know wny. | |
| 04-22-09 | 48.5432 | ||
| 04-23-09 | 48.3185 | ||
| 04-24-09 | 48.5932 | ||
| 04-25-09 | 48.6263 | ||
| 04-26-09 | 48.6144 | ||
| 04-27-09 | 49.0628 | ||
| 04-28-09 | 48.0772 | ||
| 04-29-09 | 48.6879 | ||
| 04-30-09 | 48.0076 | ||
Popularity: 2%
How long have you lived in the Philippines? After reading your column it seems you and so many others base the value of the peso vs the dollar on the info provided by the Philippine Government and other financial institutions in the Philippines? You must be joking if you think that info is accurate………you obviously don’t know much about the Philippines or its reputation for honesty!……..Com mon wake-up, do you really believe they are giving you accurate remittance info?…… world economic slow down, thousand of filipinos worldwide are losing their jobs an returnning home every month, Philippine exports have fallen to new lows, Philippine factories closing and poverty is at a new high filipinos are starving yet the peso continues to rise against the dollar etc etc,…………HELLO! is anybody home? The peso is at least 25% over valued
Harold, those are the values period. If you change your dollar into Peso that’s what you get.
If you had really read what I’ve said on this site, you’d know I have spoke of many factors that effect what I get for my dollar.. Protectionism may be one of the factors.
Why would the Philippine government protect the Peso. What would be their motivation?
I’ve been here long enough to know that the Philippines is aggressive in seeking the foreign currencies and I understand why they do that. A strong peso would hurt exports. So I’m having trouble understanding why the PI would push the value up.
You indicate the Peso is 25% over valued. What do you base this 25% number on?
There’s no reason to be abrasive, if you have something of value to offer, I’d love to hear it.
I have been tracking the dollar also for over the last 5 years. I rarely both looking at your site because it has change so much since my arrivel. I know who ever took over it not living in the real world. But your stupid comments on the Dollar vs Peso can’t be for real. If anyone lives here more than a few mnths the first thing everyone learns. Is the greed that is in PI at all levels from the street to the whole Government and greed is more than enough of a motive for fake figures. YOU, should know we have no choice but to accept it if we live here, it is their country. Even when all other currencies are falling it a sure bet the Philippine Peso will make a profit and gain. I see I was right about the change in your management a few years ago. It will be several years before I look back here again to see if you’ve taken your foot out of your mouth. I hope it improves by my next peek at your site, but I seriously doubt it will. Hahahahaha, good luck to your readers following your advice.
Aww thank you for your thoughtful comments. Wait, Other than the hate you’re spewing, there’s really nothing else to take from your message.
With your view of the Philippines, you should probably leave.
After you’ve insulted the government this way, they may help you leave.
You’re right, I’m a moron so why bother?
I left out something I meant to say. You indicated that I was giving advice. In no way have I given any advice. These articles are written in an exploratory way. I’ve never told someone they should buy or trade currency. I wouldn’t do that.
Jay, if you had read this blog as you indicate, you would know that.
I apologize Rusty, I was a bit harsh! But the greater the value of the peso, the greater the purchasing power, and greater the purchasing power the more cheap (defective) goods they can import to sale to the Philippine people and others, because as you know quality products in the Philippines will cost you a kidney donation! Keeping the peso over-valued in a country where they import much more then they export is very profitable for large import retail merchants, and good for a lot of political donations at election time to return the favor.
Its okay.
There are a lot of high quality goods and the price is about the same as they are in the states. They are a little more in many cases. If the price goes too high one can always buy it from other countries and have it shipped here by JAC.
I don’t find what you said to be completely accurate..
Usually the Philippines is a net exporter, not net importer. To get that number look and learn about the terms balance of trade surplus.
So far this year growth in experts has been negative, which means contraction. The trade surplus for January of this year in millions of dollars was $3,269.94. That compares to $4,491.46 last year. That’s 34.5% decrease in the surplus but its still an positive value.
February also had trade surplus, meaning more goods were exported than imported. It again fail when compared to same period last year. A fall of 31.9% from last year.
I’m getting these numbers from Philippine National Statistic Office. Its true the government could manipulate funds but the IMF and other countries would soon point that out.
The IMF expects a no growth in the Philippine economy for 2009. The Philippine government expects a 4% growth rate. The Philippine government has done a good job of estimating growth in the past but things are different this year. Some of the numbers don’t make sense. The Philippine government pointed out that the IMF has consistently under-estimated Philippine growth but then said the IMF under estimated by .05%. That would leave a discrepancy of 3.5%.
Also, I don’t know the degree of error in the Philippine governments projections. Last year they were dead on if I remember correctly.
The Philippine government predicted 5% and they made the 5% figure. Hopefully that was adjusted for inflation. Since the Philippines had double digit inflation for at least part of the year last year and more than 5% for the entire year, if they didn’t adjust for inflation then they would have had negative growth. I feel certain they did, my digging into methods used be the Philippines to be sound.
Projections are one thing, open to all kinds of different ideas and are accepted to often be wrong. Historical data on the other hand can be verified by other countries. The Philippine people are a very proud people.
If they threw out false data that could be verified they would come off looking foolish and that would be very bad. Someone would be fired. Philippines moves pretty fast on that kind of thing. Maybe not be the right person fired but someone will be.
You asked how long I’ve been here. I’ve been here only a year. I have learned though that how long an expat lives here is not the most important measure of the knowledge they have gained. If an expat hangs out with other expats, they are going to get a jaded and inaccurate view of the Philippines. But if one gets out of their car and walks in the Philippines, gets out and meets other Filipino, they learn at a much faster rate than someone that has been here for five years.
Also, reading Filipino news papers and websites makes a huge difference.
Even if your assumptions had been correct, that would be only one factor effecting the dollar vs peso rate, one can never look at one factor. That the Philippines needs to export to the USA is reason to boost the value of the dollar. Also, since 10% of the Philippine economy is based on remittances from over seas, usually in USD that is a strong, very strong reason to keep the dollar up.
This year the IMF expects a drop in remittances while the Philippines expects flat growth in remittances. There is only one way, in my opinion, that the Philippines can maintain flat growth and that is for the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to buy up dollars or the selling of Philippine T-bills to increase the supply of the peso.
If I’m wrong, i hope you’ll come back and explain it too me. I’m always willing to learn.
Peso is overvalued by 9% to 10 %’
By Cai U. Ordinario
Reporter
The weak United States dollar, the country’s low investment rate and the fiscal reforms implemented by the government are among the reasons why the Philippine peso is overvalued by 9 percent to 10 percent, according to government think tank Philippine Institute for Development Studies (PIDS).
[The rest of the post had to be removed due to DCMA requirements]
Please don’t quote an entire article. Its considered theft. Just leave a link to it witha few words of your own thoughts.
This is grossly out of date. At the end of 2007 the peso was strong and the dollar was week. The dollar is strong now and rising against other currencies since Oct. That trend has been reversing against the dollar for the last month or so though.
I will have to remove that article. I don’t have any choice.
If the peso if over valued at 10% right now, that would mean there it is about P4.85 over stated.
As I said to start with, it appears the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas may manipulate the value. I will stay with what I said. I’m talking fundamentals. If the government manipulates the situation then that is just another factor. My guess is they are because I saw an economics professor from the Uni. of Philippines, Manila state that increasing the value of the dollar would help keep the growth in the Philippines high. That made sense to me but it also indicates that there is manipulation. It also made think the professor might have a lot of dollars he wants to convert to make a major purchase.
I believe the Yap family is often at odds with the current administration? You’ve already said the government can’t be trusted, yet you use government numbers to try to prove what you said. Talking about the economy before 10/2008 is like talking about security before 9/11/01. In October of last year, the US central bank quadrupled the amount of money that a bank could loan per dollar deposited. When that happened, I knew all heck was about to break loose and it did.
I have been here 6 almost 7 yrs, and i spent 5 of those years meetting Filipinos on all social levels, from the Political elite to the so called squatters, very few Americans are associated with those years because I’m a see-for-yourself kind of guy, and I am in a foreign country. We can debate this sometimes depressing Peso vs. Dollar issue until dooms-day and it won’t change a thing, lets’s see if you still have the same views 5 years from now, because this money issue, Politics and how they do business in Manila, will distract from the real beauty in this country, which is the province’s it’s traditions, culture, people and fantastic scenery, while enjoying a cold San Miguel lite! I came here to lower my cost of living, and to be apart of, not apart from! However Rusty! I will continue to read your column, you an other’s have some interesting views.
I always hit submit too on. I think the SM light is bitter l prefer the full pilsen or SMB. That’s one mighty fine drink and I’m not a beer drinker. I have drank much more since I got here.
I’d be down at the BBQ by the Bogo Bay right now with one right now and along with my Filipino made cigar. I forgot how to spell it.
I’ve picked up some bad habits since I got here. I quit smoking in 1985. My G F has been fussing at me for smoking too much. I know she’s right.
NI do tend to write about the value of the Peso here a lot. I talk more about the culture on my Cebu Experience site since that’ what I know about. I haven’t been able to travel around as much as I would like.
I’m glad you’ll be here. I’m sure I can learn from you.
If my view is the same in five years I’ll be shocked. I don’t know which view you are talking about though. I’ve got a pretty strong background in this type of analysis. Then again, Ii remember back in my college years, I’d get the wrong answer on such things but my reasoning was so sound, I’d get an A anyway. All essay test. You’re view wont be the same in five years. My view about the currency is mostly a wait and see at this point. I’ve stopped predicting cause I’ve been wrong, wrong, wrong.
If you think I’m swallowing the governments numbers without question, well that would be an assumption.
I also know there are laws as a foreigner that I must operate within. I could throw in the towel and not talk at all or I can do the best I can. I’ll do the best I can.
I think you’d be surprised what I’ve encountered in the last year. Money was a huge part of my coming here as well. Five years from now inflation will be whittling down the value of my fixed income. That’s one of the main reasons I’m trying to find other ways to legally make some extra money.
Wow guys, how could I miss the banterings here about my country’s economy. You are so lucky to retire and live in the Philippines with your dollar income and peso expenses. Rusty was right about his views. he is just putting a day to day dollar exchange rate which is really useful to me because I send money to my family and the higher the rate the better albeit there is a negative side of this because the import prices of goods will also be higher. It is the common people who will suffer esp the ones who do not have a dollar earner in the family. but it is so funny how there is an exchange of ideas from people who are not filipinos, I wish more filipinos will discuss like this and not thinking of enriching themselves. You know who I mean…:)
Hey Terry, glad your hear.
I’m behind on my updating in this area. I have none for May yet. Shame on me.
It seems to me that a lot of expats can’t hold a conversation unless they are complaining about something. I don’t hold the negative view that most do. Many will say that’s because I have not been here long enough and that I just don’t know. I do know, its your own personal outlook that makes all the difference.
I’m trying to remember what kind of work you do. i don’t remember right now. What kind of work or do you work. I’m asking since you seem to have an interest in financial matters.
Rusty, I work as a teacher here but i also have a business administration degree from PI. Aside from that, I have to learn the economy…it is good to know almost everything so you can join the conversation and share you penny worth idea, right?
Yes, and I thought it was a teacher and should have recalled you just said you had to do some lesson plans. Senile at 50 just isn’t right.
I wish I had taken more economics in college but we had a very poor economics professor. Millsaps was having a heck of a time getting rid of him as he had tenure. The finally managed to do so. I took a lot of finance classes though.
So many years ago….
Been thinking hard on why the Philippines would want to over value the peso and I’ve come up with a reason. I wish I could remember more about the article Harold posted to see if it was saying the same thing. I wish he would come back to post a link.
I have been here for 13 years and have been engaged in several long term businesses. I have also done currency exchange in some rather big numbers even for the states. I do not pretend to know much about currencies but I have always made money. Other than George Soros I do not know anyone who knows much about long term currency values. I like your views. Your information regarding export import balance, government reporting is quite correct. I also think that how long you stay here does not improve or really have much effect on the accuracy of information obtained or on your ability to predict. Many of the long staying Americans here are primarily from the working class and have had very little formal training in business or currencies. A negative outlook on the Philippines seems ingrained in many of them. I will continue to follow your posts because they are quite informative and interesting. I will not go into detail here but I suspect that the peso for the remainder of the year will stay within a range of 44 to 49 with a break in the range more likely at the lower number. You will not see 50 again and 60 would be unbelievable. But again so many factors are involved more exact figures are difficult but remittances, effect of U.S. printing press, speed of U.S. recovery, Gloria’s successor, Muslim insurrection, dollar euro relationship etc. I believe that the slowness of the U.S. recovery and the inherent weakness of growth in the Euro countries are the two most important factors so I think 46 to 49 is more likely. From a personal viewpoint I have more assets in Pesos but selling PH assets will be slow in next 5 years. My income is fairly even between peso and dollar so I do not foresee much gain for me either way.
Hi Robert!
Pleasure to have you here. I hope you’ll continue to offer your informed opinion. I fully admit that I’m learning. Learning as I research and write the subject. My knowledge has grown quite a bit, even helped along by some of the negative posting from expats. They were completely wrong but it caused me to look into their points and get a better understanding of how the market works.
The recent comments by the BSP helped me a lot and confirmed a lot of what I had been saying. It is unlikely I will adopt the negative view of the Philippines that they have.
I hope to eventually get into some businesses here, my funds are limited but if inflation doesn’t kill me, I should get stronger in that regard. Right now, I am still in the starting over process with so many necessities that I need to obtain that there is very little left at the end of each month.
Thanks for taking the time to post.
When I hoped for P60, I was expecting the money flow in the US to stay the same or even get worse. Since the banks are starting to lend again, the velocity of money which is basically the same as creating money, I don’t have such a rosy outlook now. I will also admit that sometimes there is a degree of hopeful thinking.
The HSBC bank predicted the peso would go to 53 to 1. The central bank is expected to cut rates again, tomorrow I think. If they cut it too much, that will push the dollar up.
Though the US recession is showing signs of ending, the unemployment rate is lagging behind, as one would expect. However, going over 10% which it will almost certainly do next month will further slow the dollars coming into the PI or any place else.
My articles on such are not mean to be a guide on investment, that would be kind of foolish with my limited experience but rather a means for us all to learn together.
What is the change rate for the Filipino peso to the us dollar currently?
James
James, you can get that information from xe.com Its around P48 to 1USD
rusty, you think the peso will go down more? i think 2 weeks ago its 48.43 and now its 47.21.. im earnin dollar.. what do you think is the right thing to do. thanks alot..
Peso 46.6& Goin’ up fast against USD 2% in 2 weeks 1% in 1 day. Warning, not a blip; get Pesos now!
http://www.xe.com/ucc/convert.cgi?Amount=1&From=USD&To=PHP&image.x=40&image.y=8
The G-7 Abandons The Dollar
http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/05/dollar-g7-yen-markets-currencies-foreign-exchange.html?partner=alerts
Live rates at 2009.10.14 08:33:18 UTC
1.00 USD = 46.5549 PHP